09/22/2025 06:48:25 GMT
Gold continues to draw support from the Fed’s dovish signal and rising geopolitical tensions.
The USD stalls its recovery from a multi-year low and further lends support to the commodity.
A positive risk tone does little to dent the bullish sentiment surrounding the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its steady intraday ascent beyond the $3,700 round figure and hits a fresh record high heading into the European session on Monday. Geopolitical risks stemming from the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven commodity. Apart from this, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish signal, indicating that two more rate cuts would follow through the end of this year, turns out to be another factor pushing the non-yielding yellow metal higher for the second straight day.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) stalls its recent goodish recovery move from the lowest level since July 2022, touched last week amid dovish Fed expectations, and further contributes to the bid tone surrounding the Gold. The supportive fundamental backdrop, to a larger extent, offsets a generally positive risk tone, which tends to undermine the XAU/USD pair. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the upside and backs the case for additional gains, although overbought conditions might cap gains.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold buying remains unabated amid Fed rate cut bets, geopolitical risks
The Federal Reserve's dovish outlook continues to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold, which remains within striking distance of the $3,700 mark and the all-time peak touched last week. The US central bank lowered its benchmark rate for the first time since December and indicated the need for two more rate cuts this year amid concerns about a softening US labor market.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and the move to lower interest rates was a risk management cut. Powell added that he doesn't feel the need to move quickly on rates and that the Fed is in a meeting-by-meeting situation regarding the outlook for interest rates. The outlook lifts the US Dollar to an over one-week high on Monday.
Nevertheless, traders still believe that interest rates will drop much faster than the Fed is planning and are now betting on the possibility that the short-term rate, currently in the 4.00%-4.25% range, will fall under 3% by the end of 2026. Stock markets are riding this optimism to record highs, which contribute to capping the upside for the safe-haven precious metal during the Asian session.
The US Supreme Court set a date of November 5 for arguments concerning the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs. A lower court ruled that Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing most of his tariffs under a federal law meant for emergencies. Trump's tariffs, however, remain in effect during the appeal to the Supreme Court and keep investors on edge.
NATO forces intercepted three Russian MiG-31 fighters on Friday after they entered Estonia's airspace. Trump expressed his displeasure at the incursion and said he would help defend European Union members if Russia intensified hostilities. This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which could benefit the precious metal's safe-haven status and backs the case for additional gains.
There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday. However, speeches from influential FOMC members, including Powell, might influence the USD price dynamics later during the North American session and produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair.
Gold bulls largely shrug off overbought daily RSI; constructive setup backs the case for further gains
Credit and thanks : fxstreet.com
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